New forecasting model shows how COVID-19 will impact occupations and industries

August 12, 2020

Since the pandemic started, there has been a lot of speculation when it comes to forecasting industry growth, employment and an economic rebound. 

Our partners at Chmura, a leading provider of labor market data and analysis, are taking out some of the guesswork and uncertainty with their new Alternative COVID Forecast model created in JobsEQ. This is the only labor market software in the world with a forecast that takes into account COVID-19.  

With this new model, the Tampa Bay EDC research department can show forecasts on how occupations and industries will be affected by COVID-19, allowing companies and organizations to plan their future growth and recovery more confidentlyAs examples, the Tampa Bay EDC has pulled Alternative COVID Forecast models for several key local industries including hospitality/tourism and information technology.  

The hospitality and tourism industry experienced the most job loss between March and June. Pre-COVID, Hillsborough County had nearly 18,900 people employed in this industry. By the second quarter, these jobs saw a decline of -35%. But according to the new forecast model, we’ll see a steady incline by the end of 2020, reaching pre-COVID levels by mid-2021, assuming a vaccine is available then.  

Information technology also had a significant job loss during the second quarter this year, and similar to other industries, it is projected to see a steady gain after Q3 2021. However, software development, a high demand occupation in the IT field, is projected to experience an earlier incline with a steady rise after the first quarter of 2021.  

Chmura’s Alternative COVID Forecast is based on current expectations of when a vaccine will be available, which is a critical component to the economic recovery. Chmura’s forecast assumes a vaccine will be widely distributed in mid-2021. Under this scenario, employment could reach pre-pandemic levels two our three quarters later. Chmura will continue to monitor developments in the economy and update its Alternative Forecast quarterly.